A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
