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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.